First of all, Pakistan is facing a huge internal crisis which has nothing to do with Afghanistan but everything to do with its own failure after the end of the Cold War to wake up to the new reality that was taking place in the ’90s. Pakistan continued to pursue wars in Kashmir, Indian Kashmir. It continued to support the Taliban war in Afghanistan. And it completely missed out on all the benefits of the post-Cold War era. As a result, we have chronic economic stagnation, a huge energy crisis, no infrastructure, social unrest, and insurgencies in two of the four provinces.
Now clearly this crisis would benefit a lot if there was a peaceful settlement in Afghanistan between the Taliban, Karzai government, and the Americans, so that Afghanistan by 2014 could be at relative peace. That would have a major impact on the Pakistani Taliban; that is, those extremists who are fighting the government and the army in Pakistan itself. But if there is no settlement in Afghanistan, I think the situation in Pakistan will deteriorate very rapidly.