Strategies to Restore Global Economic Stability and Growth

Welcome, Keynote, and Dinner

Welcome:

• Charles L. Evans, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Opening Keynote:

• “Global Imbalances are Here to Stay” with Jean-Pierre Landau, former deputy Governor, Banque de France, former Executive Director, IMF

Introduction:

• Mark Hoplamazian, President and CEO, Hyatt Hotels Corporation

Welcome

• Marshall M. Bouton, President, The Chicago Council on Global Affairs

Taking Stock of the Current Crisis

The rapid economic deterioration of some European economies and the inability or unwillingness of others to effectively stave off crisis is testing the larger European economic experiment.  If Europe unravels, it would seriously damage many if not most other economies as well. Meanwhile, U.S. housing remains depressed and challenges posed by real estate markets in emerging economies may be harbingers of future crises.   This session will consider questions such as:  How to best shield the global economy from Europe’s troubles?  Does China’s economy have the resiliency to cope with the challenges caused by economic weakness in its top export partners?  What new policy challenges will emerging markets face in this turbulent global environment?  

Speakers:

• Austan Goolsbee, Robert P. Gwinn Professor of Economics at Booth School of Business, University of Chicago; formerly served as the Chairman of the U.S. Council of Economic Advisers
• Yang Yao, Director, China Center for Economic Research, Peking University

Chair:

• Sally Blount, Dean, The Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University

The Medium-Term Outlook

Even if the leading economies are able to muddle through the current crises, structural impediments remain.  Existing macro-imbalances are unsustainable, as are existing tax and spending policies in the U.S. and other developed countries.  Existing financial institutions and regulations are in need of restructuring to help put markets on a more secure footing. Emerging economies are expected to play a pivotal role in this restructuring process.  This session will consider questions such as:  Is the Euro sustainable?  What role will ascendant currencies take in the diversification of the global economy?  What policy actions would be appropriate to deal with persistent global imbalances? Can private demand take over from government stimulus?  Can steps be taken to change the long-term unsustainable trend in U.S. government spending and tax revenues?  What regulatory policies would be appropriate to protect against systemic risks while encouraging economic growth?

Speakers:

• Regis Bonelli, Senior Economist, Institute of Economics (IBRE), Getulio Vargas Foundation
• Jean Pisani-Ferry, President, Bruegel Institute

Chair:

• Martin Eichenbaum, Ethel and John Lindgren Professor of Economics and Co-Director, Center for International Macroeconomics, Northwestern University

Lunch and Keynote Address, "Policy Challenges for Emerging Market Economies" with Yaga V. “Y.V.” Reddy, Governor, Reserve Bank of India, 2003-2008

Introduction:

• Asha Bangalore, Senior Vice President and Economist, Northern Trust

Afternoon Break-Out Groups

Can Macro-Imbalances be “Rebalanced”?

• Keiichiro Kobayashi, Professor, Hitotsubashi University

The Role of International Institutions and Financial Regulation

• Stephen Pickford, Managing Director, International and Finance, HM Treasury (2007-2010)

What Happens When No Country Leads?

• Susan Schwab, U.S. Trade Representative (2006-2009), Professor, University of Maryland

Austerity versus Stimulus

• Naohiro Yashiro, Professor of Economics, International Christian University

Opening Keynote, "The World Economic Scenario: A Latin American Perspective" with Jesús Silva Herzog, Ambassador to the United States (1995-1997) and Secretary of Finance, Mexico (1982-1986)

Introduction:

• Richard Cooper, Founder and Managing Director of the General Welfare Group

Threatened Social Compacts and Political Responses

Headlines from around the world make clear that domestic stability cannot be separated from global uncertainty.  From the “Occupy” movement that has spread across major American cities to protests in Athens, Rome, and London, and massive demonstrations in Tel Aviv against housing subsidies, longstanding social compacts risk unraveling.  How significant is the growing income inequality in some developed countries to maintaining political consensus?  As sovereign debt mounts and governments begin to run out of the financial ammunition needed to address local concerns, what (if any) globally coordinated policies are available to assist governments faced with pressing popular demand for domestic concerns?  This session will consider questions such as:  How can long-standing social compacts evolve and survive in a globally-integrated economy? What types of political reform are possible in a period of slow economic growth?  Is it possible to maintain political consensus during a time of economic stress?

Speakers:

• Ignazio Angeloni, Visiting Fellow, Bruegel Institute, Adviser, ECB Executive Board on European Financial Integration, Financial Stability and Monetary Policy
• Jeff Joerres, Chairman, CEO & President, ManpowerGroup
• Dali L. Yang, Faculty Director, University of Chicago Center in Beijing, Board member of the Paulson Institute at the University of Chicago, member of the Committee of 100

Chair:

• Raghuram Rajan, Eric J. Gleacher Distinguished Service Professor of Finance at the Booth School of Business, University of Chicago

Are New Economic and Political Models Required?

As fiscal stimulus winds down, leaders will have fewer tools available to bolster local economies and shield populations from the pain of a sluggish economy.  It remains to be seen if private demand can take over from government stimulus and whether new political and economic frameworks are required to manage political paralysis and economic stagnation.  The Economist, in its January 21, 2012 headline announced “the rise of state capitalism,” and warned of risks to growth and innovation.  This session will consider questions such as:  Can policy makers and business leaders develop strong, coordinated responses to economic challenges? Are new social and political compacts needed in order to put the economy on a new footing and strengthen recovery? What trade-offs do new models bring in terms of innovation, free trade, and stability? What new institutional models on global governance could better manage tomorrow’s challenges?

Speakers:

• Barry Eichengreen, George C. Pardee and Helen Pardee Professor of Economics and Political Science, University of California Berkeley
• The Honorable Noboru Hatakeyama, Chairman and CEO, Japan Economic Foundation

Chair:   

• Charles L. Evans, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Lunch and Concluding Discussion with The Honorable Henry M. Paulson, Jr., CEO, Paulson Institute, University of Chicago

In conversation with:

• Michael H. Moskow, Vice Chairman and Senior Fellow on the Global Economy, The Chicago Council on Global Affairs

Introduction:

• Leah Joy Zell, President and Lead Portfolio Manager, Lizard Investors LLC